Monday, July 30, 2012

Good Old Gold

Game theory is a branch of economics that assesses outcomes by factoring probabilities of reward and risk.

Do these “factors” sound familiar?

1) Federal Reserve.

2) CFTC (Commodities and Futures Trading Comission).

3) NYSE-Next-LIFFE (the inter-national [sic] stock market).

The undergirding issue is the recent high valuation of precious metals.  Why have they increased in value so substantially?

2001-2011: Before the turn of the millennium, US equities consistently trended higher.  This past decade, however, equities have traded sideways.

1960's-1980's: this was the last period the market traded range bound.

Market Crashes: 1929, 1937, 1987 and 2007 were years that witnessed the largest sell offs in equities.


I refresh this post with these generally known facts because they lend context to the most recent years.  Arguably, the height of equities was in the mid part of the last decade.  This preceded the most recent 2007-2008 "crash."

The most material economic mover in America was "housing."  A plethora of new macro economic reports gained reliance, like the Yale Professor's Case-Schiller index, which, in essence, aggregates home purchase data.

The ripple effect, creating a healthy economy, is base around housing booms as services and products (appliances, fixtures, among others) become more routine as new owners and lessees "upgrade" their life styles.

This boom, then bust, also traipsed on the heels of, effectively, two wars.  For younger readers, America long ago abandoned its Constitutional principle of requiring Congress to declare war (see the Joint War Resolution).

Congress, unlawfully (to my view), then went on to permit Presidents’ authority to conduct six-month “mini-wars” when they… wait… yes… NO!.. feel like it.

The Cost of War:  1929 saw the beginning of War World 1.  1937 preceded America's involvement with War World 2.  

In both of these cases, America had to finance its way.  In the previous 19th century, America had been mostly "debt" free before the Civil War.  This was the first war that caused a substantial debt in America.  It was eventually paid in full.

Logic, then, would ask whether America ever paid off these first two wars.  Since the end of World War 2, America has seen "police actions" (read "war") in Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Afghanistan, Iraq-Kuwait, Libya (though not generally admitted) and, to date, interference in Syria.

The Dragon Claim: can you imagine suing the United Nations, a European President and US Government for property that your great-great-Grandparents loaned out?

Well.  This is what a few families in Japan and China have done.  What do they want?  They demand redress of 1 trillion US dollars because of a wrongful taking of a financial instrument that evidences a large collateral value based on underlying gold bullion.  Start at page 17 here

If we accept this claim as true, then we assume that America's previous 19th century assistance with Japan in defending/evading Chinese conflict created good will for an initial loan (recall, America carried no debt at this time).

America made use of this loan so as to create a militia large enough to do successful battle in the War Worlds.

These loans, instead of being repaid, were further collateralized into bond notes.  

Arguably, the US paper currency system of a FRN ("Federal Reserve Note") bulk manufacture arose from this financed arrangement for these wars.  Previous to Democratic President F. Rosevelt's confiscation of gold and silver, most Americans would pay in gold and silver ounces (though barter was the usual method of exchange).  A gold ounce indicated $20 US dollars, while silver was a valued at $ 1.  

According to this claim, Kennedy bonds were the next "phase" in America's debtor status so that it would continue with "police actions" in the 60's.  This time, in south Asia.

The Present State of War:  what would you do if you might never pay off a debt?  What if war is the only answer?  

Does war pay?

The (alleged) theft of the Dragon Family financial instruments indicates it should.

Mortgage Fraud: the US government created securitization of mortgage loans in the 1970's.  In it, brokers oversee the sale of real estate with bond yields as the investor side of the transaction.  

In 2008, the precipice of the newly unemployed did battle with their mortgage payments, many opted for strategic default (leave the lender the keys to the house).  A newly elected, political environment encouraged the judicial system (especially federal and state Attorney Generals) to label these real estate sales fraudulent (i.e., meaning the banks could not regain possession, let alone title). 

Someone had to pay, but who was it?  

This chart shows the severity of the losses that banks hemmoraged.  2007-2009 saw a dramatic loss of valuation in American banks.  

This particular fund (including all major US banks) lost 660%.

Arguably, the most conflicted profiteers from the last decade's mortgage business either moved their accounts, or homes, or both.  

Here's one excerpt (, among many, that details how the Department of Justice investigated transfer of mortgage proceeds into Switzerland: 

The Department of Justice announced that on February 2, 2012, Wegelin & Co., a Swiss bank, was indicted for conspiring with U.S. taxpayers and others to conceal from the IRS more than $1.2 billion in secret accounts.  The Department of Justice alleges that the conspiracies occurred from 2002 through 2011.

Among other things, the Department of Justice alleges that in 2008 and 2009, after UBS ceased servicing undeclared accounts for U.S. taxpayers, Wegelin, sought to acquire those U.S. taxpayers as clients.  In order to do so, they opened and serviced accounts for U.S. taxpayers.
There is, conspicuously, a significant correlation between the time period that these "tax evasion conspiracies" occurred and the banking sector, followed by every other sector lossed material valuation.

UBS is the United Bank of Switzerland.  The short story is that economic sanctions were threatened against Switzerland, led largely by the US, unless they disclosed account information.

Eventually, Switzerland conceded.  The "truth" can be viewed in a chart. 

Look at the currency rates between the US dollar and Swiss Franc "CHF".

Spanning from 2000 to 2012, this chart shows that it would have taken almost 2 Francs to get 1 Dollar in 2000-2002.

Notice when the "conspiracy" was said to begin from the above excerpt: 2002.

The 2007-2008 crash is reflected in by the change in the purchase power of the Dollar versus the Franc.

Ultimately, if 2001 saw the pinnacle of America's Dollar purchasing power; 2011 indicates the dreary lows, it means Americans must not pay a dollar, quarter and dime for every one Franc.


Returning to the Dragon Family case, they alleged that the US and UN effectively stole possession of THEIR financial instrument.

Guess where the claim arose from?



2007: the US market crashes.

2008: mortgage "fraud" suits commence.

2009: Federal Reserve beings "Quantitative Easing".  Stock market "rebounds."

2010: gold and silver go "parabolic", gold increased in value from $1,000 to nearly $2,000 (2011) / $ 15-$50 for silver.


·        Summer: Greek and Italian Presidents are forced into retirement (fired?).
o   Connections:  was (French) IMF President “DSK” forced under criminal scrutiny (before a critical Presidential election? – politics as usual???).
·        Fall: MF Global files for bankruptsy protection.  While account holders will likely see a mere nickel for every dollar former US Senator (NJ) Corzine oversaw.  (Now) Former CEO Corzine has bought a large, French castle during this “scandle.” 
o   NOTE: MF clients CANNOT use, access or withdraw their funds. 

    • Gold and Silver contracts were the main commodity account holders intended to take possession of.  
      • Was MF unable to deliver the precious metal contracts?
  • Winter: 
    • JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs experience silver contract shortage.
    • CFTC sells all "brick and morter" assets.  Enters into substantially lesser lease arrangement for operations.
  • Winter: 
    • JP Morgan and Goldman Sacs experience silver contract shortage.
    • CFTC sells all "brick and morter" assets.  Enters into substantially lesser lease arrangement for operations.


  • Spring: JP Morgan announces $ 9 billion loss.  
  • Summer: SFO Magazine and PFG CEO Wassendorf, Sr., is investigated for massive Securities violations - commingling/embezzlement and forgery.
Conclusion: I have attempted to point out the major factors in this game theory that strategically implements war, institutional regulation (or, rather, the conflicted dealing by supposed guardians), finance and hard versus paper assets debate in causal sequence.

The sole linchpin that holds this bridge, a global narrative, between the 19th through into the 21st centuries, is that precious metals maintain value.

As seen, nations and their currencies, banks and companies come and go.  



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